Not Worlds Apart: Preventing future atrocities
Author: Namrata Inamdar | Project Consultant 2022
Over six million people are displaced. Helpless people are falling victim to a ruthless oppressor, who seeks power and control over what is not theirs. Reading this may have led you to believe that this is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but what if I told you that it is happening in a country most Americans can't even point to on a map? This is the reality of the Afghanistan crisis, which is ruining millions of lives; we must act now to prevent an even greater catastrophe.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shaken the world and, as it continues to take thousands of lives, it leaves us to think whether something could have been done to avoid it. While we cannot go back in time, we must learn from this conflict to prevent future atrocities and we can start by implementing these lessons in Afghanistan.
When news broke of the Russian troops' buildup near Ukraine's eastern border, most experts believed that war was the last thing on Putin’s mind. Melbourne University’s own Dr Sara Meger attributed this widespread belief to several justifications. This included viewing the Russian troop buildup as a defensive action because Moscow feared the military aid that President Biden offered Ukraine. She also highlighted that Russia has had more advantageous periods in the past to invade Ukraine, specifically after the Euromaidan Revolution in 2014. So the world did little, beyond warn Russia of the consequences, to actively prevent the conflict. Therefore, as Russia invaded Ukraine on the morning of the 24th of February, the world was taken aback.
So are we now more likely to preemptively act in the future?
While Russia’s foreign assets are frozen and most nations have placed sanctions on Russian oil and gas, it is the global economy that is feeling the consequences. This is pushing many countries to self-source these essential resources, or source them from trusted allies. For example, Europe is looking into diversifying its energy sources as a permanent solution. Subsequently, this reduced dependence will make taking preventative action for atrocities in the future much easier. So yes, the once considered impossible war between Ukraine and Russia, has made the world more likely to preemptively act to prevent future atrocities.
However an important distinction to also note is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made it into public discourse while many others are largely ignored by the media. There are several reasons for this.
Firstly, proximity. The Russia-Ukraine war is on the doorstep of NATO allies such as Poland, so it is of concern, while conflicts in the Middle East are too far away for the rest of the world to feel any imminent danger.
Secondly, the structure of media plays a major role in which conflicts make it into public discourse. With US media being some of the most influential, wars in the Middle East, such as the one in Yemen, that have US involvement, are rarely mentioned. So as the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not, US media has no reservations in covering it. To add to this, the simplicity of a conflict also matters. Professor Virgil Hawkins posits that the simplicity of a conflict is associated with people’s ability to sympathise with it. In the Russia-Ukraine war, there is an obvious ‘good guy’ and ‘bad guy’ whereas wars in the Middle East are far more complicated.
Being in public discourse has allowed more action to be taken, including big-name companies leaving Russia, and more aid being provided from civilians, for example, UK residents are opening their homes to refugees.
But what does this mean for those conflicts that are not in public discourse?
Let us agin look at the war in Yemen. Labelled the ‘world’s worst humanitarian crisis' by the U.N., the conflict has resulted in more than 17 million people being food insecure, yet it is seldom shown in the media. The scarce coverage has caused a lack of public awareness and in turn an absence of pressure on governments to act. This has contributed to insufficient amounts of aid for Yemenis, with the UN only raising 1.3 billion dollars of the 4.27 billion dollars it was seeking in March this year. In other words, only 30% of what is needed to help over 14 million people who do not have enough food, was raised.
So while the Russia-Ukraine conflict has naturally made it into the public conversation more than other conflicts, we must consciously keep the others in public dialogue because not doing so can reduce vital aid.
What are the lessons?
These lessons can be implemented right now in Afghanistan to prevent a catastrophe. The Taliban has taken power in Afghanistan and its economy is shrinking, however, it is not too late to prevent a humanitarian disaster. We can not wait until the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to act because Afghanistan's GDP is predicted by the UN to reduce between 3 and 13 percent in the next year, and leave almost 98% of the country in poverty. This will only increase the threat of a revived drug trade and mass migration, hurting not only Afghans but also neighbouring countries. In addition to this, women are bearing the brunt of the repercussions of Afghanistan's economic state. Girls are being sold into child marriages for their families to afford food and other basic resources, and reduced access to health services is causing increased maternal mortality.
We should provide humanitarian aid regardless of the Taliban’s decrees because conditional aid on better behaviour often does not work. The International Monetary Fund realised this decades ago when it provided billions to Indonesia to support policy reform during its financial crisis. The Indonesian government, however, was unable to carry this out, resulting in the 1998 Indonesia riots, which killed thousands.
We cannot risk punishing Afghans for the actions of the Taliban, because if it was not already clear, aggressors do not always care about the needs of civilians, as shown by Putin continuing the war despite the ramifications on the Russian economy. We must learn from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to prevent further atrocities. This should be done in two ways. We should economically help nations during and in the aftermath of warfare and we should keep conflicts in public discourse.
Conclusion
Over six million people are displaced. Helpless people are falling victim to a ruthless oppressor, who seeks power and control over what is not theirs. We must start by helping the people of Afghanistan.