“Sustainable” vs “Development”: Southeast Asia’s quest for resilience in an age of disruptions
Author: Kaley Nguyen | Communications Director 2021
The Southeast Asian region paints an interesting and complex picture of development, with thriving economies juxtaposed against social inequalities and environmental problems. Whilst they are expected to witness positive real GDP growth rates in 2021, COVID-19 disruptions have brought sustainable development and climate adaptation back into the spotlight. Despite their formal commitment to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, Southeast Asian countries are facing major roadblocks on their paths to achieving long-term sustainability due to the short-term focus on driving post-pandemic economic recovery.
Source: Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN.org)
Solving a three-variable equation
Sustainable development can be considered a balancing act between three variables: fostering socio-economic opportunities, access to equal services and environmental sustainability . For Southeast Asian nations, it is this last factor that is hardest to balance. Not only are they already disproportionately vulnerable to the effects of climate change given their geographic location, but also heavily reliant on agriculture, natural resources and forestry. Natural disasters such as heat waves, floods and tropical cyclones, compounded with the economic instability and wellbeing risks caused by the pandemic, are posing pressing challenges to developing ASEAN countries whose capacities to deal with multi-hazard risks are already limited.
Villagers ride along a flooded road in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. (AP: Heng Sinith)
In 2018, the lives of at least 24 million people in the region were affected by natural disasters. During the next 30 years, approximately 31 million people in Vietnam, 23 million in Indonesia and 12 million in Thailand are expected to live below average annual flood elevation levels, rendering them susceptible to unexpected weather damages. In addition to the increasingly vicious storms and cyclones, the expected 50-70 centimeter rise in sea levels will endanger 77% of Southeast Asian communities in the coastal and river delta regions.
However, the rush to recover from pandemic-induced recession is prompting Southeast Asian countries to prioritise short-term economic growth over a long-term vision of environmental sustainability. Vulnerable communities in the Southeast Asia region are not only dealing with natural disasters but also increased economic instability and wellbeing risks arising from the pandemic. Due to their heavy reliance on agriculture, tourism and local economies composed of small businesses, the economic harms from reduced trade and social restrictions pose immediate threats to the livelihoods of these communities. Consequently, the pressure on governments to drive economy-led recovery is also magnified. The race to business-as-usual has been populating the atmosphere with heat-trapping greenhouse gas and draining peatlands for agricultural commodities. Even though worldwide COVID-19 lockdowns saw an intermission of greenhouse gas emissions with a 17% dip in April 2020, CO2 levels have since bounced back to being the highest they have been in 3 million years. While emitting half of the world’s total greenhouse gas, Southeast Asia’s transition to renewable energy has also experienced additional delays, compounding the region’s inadequate efforts to achieve global warming reduction targets.
Much more than a local problem
Although climate impacts are often felt locally, the funding and expertise required to deal with such issues can only be found at the national or international level. With the world food supply chain being highly interconnected, storm-susceptible rice producers such as Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia possess disruptive risks to importing countries that depend heavily on their harvests. Between 2018 and 2019, the economic and trade cooperation between Australia and Southeast Asia accounted for 13.9 percent of Australia's total trade. This increasingly interdependent global market signifies that an impact in one area can cause a ripple effect throughout the world economy. While trade interruptions breed economic instability and agricultural adversities produce food supply shortage, the combination of socioeconomic struggles and natural risks may rattle cross-border peace due to widespread migration. Further, the inability to deal with these threats widens welfare gaps by disproportionately putting pressure on the poorest and most vulnerable communities, further averting collective efforts against future disasters. In the case of post-pandemic Southeast Asia, the wealth gap and restricted access to technologies, healthcare and services are posing major obstacles to regional recovery from COVID-19.
Source: OECD, Towards Green Growth in Southeast Asia - Solutions for Policy Makers, https://www.oecd.org/dac/environment-development/Final%20SE%20Asia%20Brochure%20low%20res.pdf
Theories and practices
Amongst many lessons learnt from COVID-19, the pandemic has shown us that we are nowhere near ready to deal with disruptions from nature. Initiatives to address climate adaptation and disaster resilience are increasingly important yet inherently complex. The interconnectedness between development, sustainability and resilience is often overshadowed by a tunnel focus on one aspect. Despite having sustainability plans on a national scale, most countries favour infrastructure and energy production over adaptation and climate resilience. It appears that the prisoner dilemma persists in the face of balancing environmental policies and economic growth.
The discrepancies between framework reinforcement at national, regional and local levels also play a role in hindering actualisation of adaptation strategies. A critical review of disaster risk management in Southeast Asian countries reveals the internal lack of uniformity in performing a comprehensive hazard assessment. Out of the countries in the region, the Philippines has one of the most adequate frameworks, although it is still not sufficiently implemented at a regional level with only one in every 13 cities properly reinforcing the assessment framework. While regulations are in place and projects are planned, inadequate regulatory structure, cooperation and funding capacity hinder its implementation.
Frameworks to address sustainable development pose difficult governance questions of ‘who’, ‘when’, ‘how’, ‘what is included’ and ‘why’. In spite of numerous ‘green’ policies implemented for capacity building, policies with adverse consequences to the environment, such as the lowering of fossil-fueled generated electricity cost and financial support for polluting state-owned enterprises, are still in place.
Another common stumbling block faced by many developing countries is the difficulty in obtaining financial support for sustainable development. Financing resilient urban infrastructure can be achieved through fiscal instruments such as taxes, fees and tariffs. Yet,to actualise the shift away from greenhouse gases, fossil fuels and resource-exploitive industries and towards more resource-efficient business models, the financial and private sector must also play a defining role. Currently, only a few financial institutions in Asia integrate sustainable investment and green finance into their models/systems. For Southeast Asia alone, the ASEAN Investment Report 2015 estimates that USD $110 billion per year will be needed for infrastructure investment into power, transport, information and communication technology, and water and sanitation. Despite such need, there is a relatively low level of green lending and investment from Asian financial institutions. Similarly, whilst the sustainable market segment has grown rapidly in recent years, it still only constitutes a small portion of funds managed in Asia.
Towards resilience and growth
Whilst it is undoubtedly plagued with dilemmas, the picture of sustainable development in Southeast Asia is not all doom and gloom. With many countries putting efforts in vertical and horizontal coordination between national and local governance bodies, rigorous policy support and enforcement can facilitate the transition towards sustainable energy. Further, an increasing number of governments are also involving marginalised communities in leading immediate response and designing risk and resilience strategies.
The Southeast Asian region is considered to be one of the most prosperous economic zones, and is also blessed with some of the most fertile and prosperous ecologies. At the crossroad of sustainability and growth, opportunities lie ahead for ASEAN countries to balance the equation of sustainable development. From regenerative agriculture through biotechnologies to circular, targeted policies can focus on creating opportunities for sustainable urban development and sources of finance. As the Southeast Asian region grows and bounces back from the pandemic, the rest of the world is watching and anticipating the new rising tigers with questions remaining; what are their next steps and who are the ones to take them?